Friday, December 30, 2011

Guesstimates on December 30, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1256-1268. I now looks like the drop from 1264 ended at 1243 and that the ES is on its way to 1284. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Guesstimates on December 29, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1236-1254. The drop from yesterday's 1264 high should carry the ES down at least to 1236 and more probably to 1212. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00. Support is at 26.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

what's going on




Here are four daily bar charts which together paint a clear picture of the economic forces at work in the markets over the past few weeks and for the coming few months.

The European Central Bank has decided to bolster the liquidity of the EU banking system by buying sovereign bonds from private banks for euros and then putting them on the ECB's own balance sheet. This policy should send the euro-currency down against the dollar, and indeed that is what we see in the euro-currency daily chart (second from top).

This ECB policy is designed to avert a banking crisis which would tank the entire EU economy. European stock markets right now think the ECB will attain this policy goal as you can see from the top chart of the French CAC stock market index - while the Euro has tanked the CAC has stabilized and even shows a series of higher lows which bodes well for the immediate future.

The US stock market has been worrying about fallout from Europe putting pressure on US banks and even threatening another banking crisis in the US. But as you can see in the bottom chart of the S&P bank stock index, US bank stocks are actually outperforming the S&P itself - this index is above not only its 200 day moving average (red line) but also above its October 27 high (green dash line). The market seems to think that better times are ahead for US banks.

Finally note the second chart up from the bottom which shows the performance of the Philadelphia stock exchange housing stock index. Like the S&P bank stock index it is trading above its October 27 top as well as above its 200 day moving average. This suggests that a recovery in residential housing construction is underway in the US, a positive sign for the US economy.

Taken together these four charts all suggest that the thick blanket of gloom which currently envelopes the US stock market is about to lift. Better times and higher prices lie ahead.

Guesstimates on December 28, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1260-1271. A rally from 1195, the December 19 low, which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Guesstimates on December 27, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1252-1262. A rally from 1195, the December 19 low, which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, December 23, 2011

Guesstimates on December 23, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1250-1260. A rally from 1195, the December 19 low, which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

Guesstimates on December 22, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1238-1254. i think that Monday's 1195.50 low ended the drop from 1266. A rally from 1195 which matches the size of the rally from November 25 to December 8 would put the e-minis at 1319. The longer term trend is also upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 2.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Guesstimates on December 21, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1220-1236. Bullish divergences visible in the advancing issues oscillators you can find on my chart page are a strong hint that the drop from 1266 ended Monday at 1195.50 and yesterday's close above 1220 was added evidence for this. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Guesstimates on December 20, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1209-1227. Bullish divergences visible in the advancing issues oscillators you can find on my chart page are a strong hint that the drop from 1266 ended yesterday and a close today above 1220 would be even more convincing evidence of this. The longer term trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, December 19, 2011

Guesstimates on December 19, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1214-1231. The drop from 1266 will probably end near 1175, although a close today above 1225 would mean that it instead ended at the 1198 low point. In either case the bigger trend is upward. A rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820 and a move to 1.2400 is in the cards. . Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 . I think the Euro is "decoupling" from the European and US stock markets because the European Central Bank has made an implicit commitment to provide whatever liquidity is necessary to the EU banking system.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, December 16, 2011

European crisis update

For those of you who are following the EU debt crisis here is a link which suggests things are starting to turn around in the short run, pretty much as I suggested they would in this last post.

Take a look at this too.

Guesstimates on December 16, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1215-1230. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370. The drop from 1266 will probably end near 1175, although a close today above 1223 would mean that it instead ended at the 1198 low point yesterday.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820. Resistance above the market is at 1.3130 .

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

February Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

update

Here is a daily bar chart of the March '12 e-minis.

I think the October 4 low at 1062 and the November 25 low at 1142 are first two lows in a sequence of higher lows. The ES is in the process of dropping to its third higher low which I expect to develop around 1175 at the lower line of the bullish trend channel I have drawn. There is an outside chance that the overnight low last night at 1198 is this third higher low but I doubt it.

In any case the most obvious upside target now stands at the confluence of the upper channel line and the level at which the rally from 1142 will match the size of the rally from 1062 (blue dash rectangles). That is also the level of the May 2011 top at 1373 (green oval).

I think I am on safe ground when I assert that investor sentiment is quite negative. The unrelenting European debt crisis is all people are thinking about and all the markets are focusing upon. Of course, things can always get much worse as we learned in 2008. However, I think that was a very unusual situation and one not likely to be repeated.

What interests me right now is the fact that the ES is well above its October low even as doomsayers are predicting the end of the Euro-currency and a worldwide banking crisis. Moreover, even as the US and European markets are holding well above their September-October lows the Euro-currency itself is below its corresponding low made on October 4. I have a strong suspicion that this means that speculators are expecting the ECB (European Central Bank) to provide ample liquidity to the banking system through the "back door" even as it stands at the front door and denies that it will do any quantitative easing. If it does provide such "back door" liquidity the Euro will continue its decline but European stock markets should recover. This would be a bullish development for the US stock market.

Guesstimates on December 15, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1212-1230. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820. .

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold will probably drop to 1510 or so and then begin a move to 2100.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Guesstimates on December 14, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1206-1227. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has dropped below its October 4 low. Next support is at 1.2820. .

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is now at 1610.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Guesstimates on December 13, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1231-1249. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, December 12, 2011

Guesstimates on December 12, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1234-1252. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – February Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - March Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, December 09, 2011

what hasn't happened

There seems to be an emerging consensus that yesterday's EU summit meeting was a partial failure and a partial success - sort of like all the other EU initiatives taken to control a potential banking crisis.

There is an extraordinary conviction among investors and the this half -success, half-failure result was too little and too late, that an Euro zone break up is inevitable and will have devastating, world-wide economic consequences. At least that is what I am reading in the print media and getting from on-line sources.

Here are a few headlines I found within minutes of searching on line for reactions to the summit. They are quite representative.

"Europe's blithering idiots and their flim-flam treaty" - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, The Telegraph (UK)

"Europe's Disastrous Summit" - Felix Salmon, Reuters US

"Eurozone banking system on verge of collapse" - Harry Wison, The Telegraph (UK)

I think I am on safe ground in asserting that a very bearish investment crowd has developed around this theme during the past few months.

The odd thing is that the European stock markets as well as the US market have rallied today - not by a huge amount - but quite substantially. I also note that the Euro-currency has been trading quietly for the past two weeks in a narrow range a little above its early October lows.

This surprises me, and I think it means that the widely accepted view that a European crash is imminent is wide of the mark. I think the Euro will rally against the dollar from here and that European and US stock prices will advance well above their late October highs.

Guesstimates on December 9, 2011

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1223-1243. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Thursday, December 08, 2011

Guesstimates on December 8, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1242-1259. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Guesstimates on December 7, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1243-1257. The trend is upward and a rally from the November 25 low at 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

Guesstimates on December 6, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1253-1270. The trend is upward and a rally from 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Monday, December 05, 2011

Guesstimates on December 5, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1247-1265. The trend is upward and a rally from 1147.50 which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close above 1.3549, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.

Friday, December 02, 2011

Guesstimates on December 2, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1247-1263. The trend is upward and a rally from last week's low which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close Friday above 1.3568, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.