Friday, December 02, 2011

Guesstimates on December 2, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1247-1263. The trend is upward and a rally from last week's low which matches the size of the October rally would bring the ES to 1370.

QQQ: Now headed for 63.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I suspect that the trend in the Euro is turning upward. A close Friday above 1.3568, last week's high, would convince me of this. In the meantime I am thinking in terms of an upside target of 140.50.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1675.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.


hannibal said...

Carl, everybody is betting on a crooked house, it would seem. In our crooked world, maybe that is the play? I doubt it. I am reminded of so many lines from Shakespeare's great moral tragedies, but will spare you the line.....still, the only thing I am sure of is that we are heading for currency devaluations on a global scale, forever and ever. Ultimate dozens of currency rejections. The debt obligations are overwhelming, the political will is not suicidal, the government troughs too enjoyable. Anyway, how can gold not go up in this world of paper renunciations over the next decade?

kcounty said...

hannibal - i thinks its all perspective, and carl is trying to use technical anlysis to capture a view. you describe a perfectly valid portaryal of what is, and what is to come (i like the shakes ref) but i wonder how much of it belongs to the 99%. if they "feel" good they buy and economies go up (eg 1999, 2007), if not then the slow, grinding bear grabs on. cycles. cycles

hannibal said...

kcounty, even Carl said this market for him has been the most frustrating of his 3 decade career. Nuff said for me to know, the rules are changing. They are changing because the fiat currencies, and the declining economies of the west are picking up steam in their respective descents.........Carl has jumped like so many, and certainly me, a regular mexican jumping bean. Do we bet with the corrupt gang on wallstreet, alligned with the Banksters? This game has been a good one for so long. I think not. for so many reasons, I say we deflate. I say the markets follow for the time being. BTW, your last reference in your post is not Shakespeare. It is Yeats, Sailing to Byzantium, a terrific poem, and if you check it out, you will see Hollywood stole from its first line recently, and quite successfully. To me so many lines from Shakespeare's great tragedies come to mind at this point in our history, but here is one from Churchill, as he watched the inevitable powers soon coming to war, on the eve of World War I,...he could see it coming, and said, "The Terrible Ifs Accumulate."....Read B.Tuchman's book, as this is what we are soon to see.....and I love Carl's picture by the way...did you know that each military worker we pay for now costs the american taxpayer almost 200K per year? with out 800 foreign military bases, the kiddies playing video games at night....not a recipe for a healthy culture, or stock market...smoke and mirrors. Here is one from Hamlet, "the Cat will mew, and dog will have his day."

kcounty said...

hannibal - yikes. a literate person on the 'weener-tubes' a scary notion!

again, i couldnt agree more with you, paticularly the assumption of crooked banks and wall street shenanigans running amok, however it would be crazy for them to change the game now as is has been working for so long, and no reason it cant continue (unfortuantely). Also, we have a large voting block of old-white codgers that are getting cranking and starting to vote republican. Smart of you to reflect on history as i think a lot of our questions have been asked before.