danger ahead

Here are daily charts of my three favorite trend indicators: the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, and the NYSE advance-decline line.

As I write this all three are below their 50 day moving averages (green lines, red arrows). Assuming they stay below them for the next couple of days I think this means that the Dow and the S&P are headed for their 200 day moving averages (red lines and green arrows) and quite possibly below them.

This "sell signal" from the 50 day moving averages should be taken seriously. The bull market in the US stock market has lasted more than 5 years from its inception in March of 2009. This is an unusually long bull run and Lindsay's 15 year period and extended advance measurements underline this fact.

Guesstimates on July 31, 2014

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1942-56. A break below 1940 would mean that a drop of at least 90 -110 points is underway.  

QQQ: Support is now at 94.00 and I think the Q’s have a good shot at 99.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has definitely broken the low of the 1.35-1.37 trading range and is now headed for 1.33 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

September Crude:  Crude has dropped decisively below 102 support and is now headed for 90.

August Gold:  I think gold is headed for 1395. Support is at 1285.

September Silver: Resistance above the market at 20.25 has been broken. Silver is headed for 22.25.

Google:  Googl is headed for 620 and higher.

Apple:  Apple’s stock split makes its historical high 100.70. AAPL had moved past all resistance which I can calculate below that top. It is well above rising 50 and 200 day moving averages. I now think AAPL is headed above 100, probably to 108 or so.

Guesstimates on July 30, 2014

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1962-74. A break below yesterday’s low would be very bearish but meanwhile I still think that the ES is in the early stages of a move to 2000 and higher.  

QQQ: Support is now at 94.00 and I think the Q’s have a good shot at 99.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has definitely broken the low of the 1.35-1.37 trading range and is now headed for 1.33 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

September Crude:  Crude has dropped decisively below 102 support and is now headed for 90.

August Gold:  I think gold is headed for 1395. Support is at 1285.

September Silver: Resistance above the market at 20.25 has been broken. Silver is headed for 22.25.

Google:  Googl is headed for 620 and higher.

Apple:  Apple’s stock split makes its historical high 100.70. AAPL had moved past all resistance which I can calculate below that top. It is well above rising 50 and 200 day moving averages. I now think AAPL is headed above 100, probably to 108 or so.

Guesstimates on July 29, 2014

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1973-85. I think that the ES is in the early stages of a move to 2000 and higher.  

QQQ: Support is now at 94.00 and I think the Q’s have a good shot at 99.00.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has definitely broken the low of the 1.35-1.37 trading range and is now headed for 1.33 or lower.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

September Crude:  Crude has dropped decisively below 102 support and is now headed for 90.

August Gold:  I think gold is headed for 1395. Support is at 1285.

September Silver: Resistance above the market at 20.25 has been broken. Silver is headed for 22.25.

Google:  Googl is headed for 620 and higher.

Apple:  Apple’s stock split makes its historical high 100.70. AAPL had moved past all resistance which I can calculate below that top. It is well above rising 50 and 200 day moving averages. I now think AAPL is headed above 100, probably to 108 or so.