Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Guesstimates on July 9, 2014

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1960-70. The ES broke below 1964 support yesterday and volume was higher than at any time during the last three weeks. However the selling dried up after the first 90 minutes of trading and this is characteristic of a reaction within an uptrend. I think the ES will recover 1964 support today and if it does a move to 1995-96 will be underway. Failure to move above 1964 would be bearish.  
QQQ:  Upside target is 95.00 has been reached. I think the Q’s are going to have a hard time making further progress but there is as yet no sign of a top.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still locked in a 1.35-1.37 trading range. I think any drop below the low of this range will be brief and the next big development will probably be an upside breakout.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
August Crude:  My upside target is 112 and support is at 102. A break below support would mean that this market is headed back down to 90.
August Gold:  I think gold is headed for 1395.
September Silver: Resistance above the market at 20.25 has been broken. Silver is headed for 22.25.
Google:  Googl has moved above the two important resistance levels I have been watching at 538 and 555 so I conclude that it is now headed for 620 and higher.
Apple:  Apple’s stock split makes its historical high 100.70. AAPL had moved past all resistance which I can calculate below that top. It is well above rising 50 and 200 day moving averages. I now think AAPL is headed above 100, probably to 108 or so.

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