Thursday, July 10, 2014

Guesstimates on July 10, 2014

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1940-1954. News of a Portuguese banking default sent the ES lower in European trading. Support is at 1939 and a significant break below that level would meant that the uptrend from the April 14 low at 1803 is over. This in turn would make likely a drop of at least 80-90 points from the 1978.25 high.
QQQ:  Upside target is 95.00 has been reached. I think the Q’s are going to have a hard time making further progress but there is as yet no sign of a top.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is still locked in a 1.35-1.37 trading range. I think any drop below the low of this range will be brief and the next big development will probably be an upside breakout.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
August Crude:  My upside target is 112 and support is at 102. A break below support would mean that this market is headed back down to 90.
August Gold:  I think gold is headed for 1395.
September Silver: Resistance above the market at 20.25 has been broken. Silver is headed for 22.25.
Google:  Googl has moved above the two important resistance levels I have been watching at 538 and 555 so I conclude that it is now headed for 620 and higher.
Apple:  Apple’s stock split makes its historical high 100.70. AAPL had moved past all resistance which I can calculate below that top. It is well above rising 50 and 200 day moving averages. I now think AAPL is headed above 100, probably to 108 or so.

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