Wednesday, April 27, 2005

A long term look at crude oil

The chart above depicts my long term box analysis of West Texas crude oil.

There is a clearly delineated, long term box that is $30 high with bottom of the box at $10 and top of the box at $40. This past year prices broke decisively above the top of the box. Generally speaking, the next stopping point after a breakout is half the box size (in this case half of $30 is $15) above the top of the old box, i.e. $55. The market nearly reached $57 and in my view is now headed back down to the bottom of another $30 box which I estimate is at $25.

One reason (among others!) I have confidence being a long term bear here is that expectations of $60 crude and even of $100 crude are widely held. Few people expect crude to drop even below $50. In fact, $50 is now regarded as a permanently high plateau for crude oil.

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