Friday, May 23, 2008

Guesstimates on May 23, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: The market is on the way down into the 1350-75 zone. Resistance above the market today is again at 1410. After the reaction has been completed I expect to see a rally which will take the S&P’s to 1500.

QQQ: I think a drop to support at 46.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. Resistance is at 117-28. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance is still at 158.00. I think the market is on its way to 140.

Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 112.00. Support is now at 101.15.

XLE - OIH - USO – July Crude: I still think crude will reach 136 before a break of at least 10 dollars develops.

GLD - June Gold: June gold is headed back to 1000 and possibly to the 1060 level.

SLV - July Silver: I think the trend in silver has turned upward and that a move to 2000 is underway.

Google: It looks like Google will drop to 515 or so before resuming its uptrend.


Mary said...

Ok, so how did you arrive at the S&P 1350-1375 target at 8am eastern?

I'm not disagreeing with the answer, I just couldn't see that until more data arrived (after market open).

What is this "box theory" of yours? Some Darvas derivation?



Anonymous said...

Good call on the SPY Carl

Anonymous said...

I think your forcasts are
pretty good. What I do not understand is, that you predict the US Dollar to go up against the Euro but the Gold/Silver to go up as well.
Is it not the if the Dollar goes down like it is now the Oil?Gold?Silver goes up and vice versa.

pursuitist said...

nice work on spx. I didn't expect it. What still remains to be seens is whether we're in 14-15 of 3 peaks and a domed house...

I don't understand how you get to 136 for a top (interim?) in $WTIC. I get 30 point boxes on the the 3 year weekly (with credible congestion at 15 point increments) Seems like 140 is the next likely turning point.

Could you show your box theory applied to the $WTIC? I've spent some time looking for 136 and I can't find it. Thank you. --bb

Anonymous said...

I think the market is headed for a crash....forget S&P 1500.

Anonymous said...

if your interested in my cycles work i have posted it here
overall the posts sentiment wise are positive i see yet there is 1
becoming negative which is nice to see .
keep up the good work
anonomous joe

Anonymous said...

im going to note this today
so when we get closer to the high
i can leave you with some impression of knowing what im looking at . i have a cycle turn date of june 9th on the stock mkt
and yet as i look at this date in regards to oil i found myself spending 2 hours researching the price oil . here is my thought
the price of oil based on the futures will peak in a price range
between 155.70 to 164.95 in the next 11 trading days .this leave a time period of june 9th to june 11th . from this high crude will them crash back to 101 in less than 55 trading days .
in the larger scheme of things crude oil will go back to 50 bucks
over the next 2 years . yet this initial crash will be the best short term trade as there will be 3reactions down the first will follow the peak over a 17 trade day period to around 115 with a bounce then another 2 that follow hitting the 101 level .the first leg down lasting an aproximate of 52 trading days . my guess is this will be veiwed as bullish the stock market .