Thursday, October 16, 2008

Guesstimates on October 16, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The e-minis dropped more than I expected, all the way down to 880, but I think the market has turned upward and has started a rally which should carry it into the 1080-1100 zone. I think there is a good chance that last week’s 837 low will hold for quite a while, but even if it doesn’t the 810 level probably will. 

QQQ: Support stands at 30.50. The next upswing should carry to 38.00. 

TLT - December Bonds: I think a big drop is underway in the bonds. It should carry the market back to 111 or lower. 

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are now headed for the 110-111 zone. 

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro should rally back to 139 or so. 

Dollar-Yen: My revised 99.00 target has been reached. I think this market will stabilize and the yen will soon begin a big rally. Short term resistance is now at 104.00. 

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Downside target at 75 was exceeded yesterday. I don’t think the market will spend much if any time below 70.00 before it rallies to 88.00 or so. 

GLD - December Gold: Gold still has resistance at 935.  I think gold will soon drop to 600. 

SLV - December Silver: Resistance is at 1390. Next downside target is 900.   

Google: Google has nearly made it back into the 310-30 zone and soon should rally to 425. 

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl.
Is the 1080-1100 zone this week,or in the near future?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Carl,

It looks like the END is near... Roubini is calling for 24mth recession and DOW 5K!

I cant stop to think of all the baby boomers working til the die, this is unreal, whatever happened to the American Dream?

Last night, Paulson on Kudlow, he couldnt tell the nation we are in a recession... Our own Treasury Chief just keeps lying to our face... When are the American people going to do something about it? Why arent we rallying in front of the White House so George can hear us....

Good Luck,
ex

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asxXHEAn1glc&refer=home

David Johnson said...

Carl,
I've been cautiously buying small increments of gold on dips, but buying nonetheless, despite your prediction of 600. Looks like that was a pretty good call. What was it based on?