wave i down is complete and a small A up, B down, C up retracement within wave ii will complete.
As I mentioned earlier, enjoy a couple nice up days because I believe the real carnage of wave iii down will take us below 1000 in the next week or two.
Wave [i] down was already completed on Feb. 1st, at 1071.44 SPX with an a-b-c rally back up to 1104.86 SPX to complete Wave [ii].
We have had yet another smaller wave (i) down complete into this morning, before an "a" up and a new low in "b" at 1044.50 SPX of an "a-b-c" flat in what is called Wave [iii} down.
After some retracements back up (possibly Monday's opening) to 1074 or 1084 in the "c" portion of the flat, the market according to Elliott Wave theory should then proceed DOWN HARD in Wave (iii) of [iii].
In otherwords, it is the old 1-2, i-ii, before falling off a cliff on Tuesday.
carl, im tired of seeing you attacked...here is something for you...fwiw i follow this service that gives buy and sell signals based upon the committment of traders reports...in nov commercials were hugely short and generated a sell signal which then failed...usually after a failed sell signal the market takes off to the upside but this one rolled over and in the last two weeks commercials have been covering alot...after the selloff on thur and fri they most likely will be buying very aggressively, supporting a move to new highs... hope it works for both our sakes... thanks and keep up the good work.
Anyone who is brave enough to make his predictions has a thick skin and is impervious to the criticism of the masses of timid souls who hide behind hindsight.
Thanks from me for your continued insights. No place to hide when you are on the mound and toss one down the middle. It just comes with the territory.
Step by step, just reading the waves, boxes, whatever the best we can. I love to see the variety of "disciplines" and opinions represented here.
The low made on Friday Feb 5th has nearly all the right ingredients for a MAJOR bottom. These include matching historical precedents, reaching statistical lower boundaries, satisfying 3-phase target range low, as well as being accompanies by very high capitulation volume. Its all there and I tried to spell this out on my blog. However, the path taken from Jan 11th to Feb 5th does not clearly suggest a rally through the Jan 11th top. Similar to the interim low during the Jun -July 2009 period, this market may need to go lower before it can move higher. Should be interesting and I also see short term turns happening in other asset classes (USD top, Nat Gas bottom, Oil bottom, Implied vol top, etc.). Jury is still out for me on if emini's go to new bull mraket highs but I do think we see emini 1100 before we see 1040 (currently 1060).
The recent meteoric rise in the dollar has NOT been met with a concomitant rise in bonds. Look at TLT, for instance. If the dollars are not going into bonds, and if the dollar continues to rise more dollars are being pulled out of other currencies, then where will funds go?
You could say that funds are not going into US bonds because of (a) the massive (and increasing) US debt, and little understanding of how it will be paid, and (b) very low interest rates.
But, if there was a crisis such as in March 2009, funds would still go into bonds. People don't just put money under the mattress. (Look at TLT charts.)
Either funds are not going into bonds because equities are still considered a better bet (hence crisis is not considered very extreme) OR funds have not yet gone into bonds, but will do so. Looking at the TLT chart, I don't find the latter to be a compelling argument. Also, given the TNX chart (bond rates), I find this argument very hard to believe. In fact, it appears to me that TNX may have completed a 50% retrace of the past five-wave (December 2009) bull move in a three wave bear move. This would be bullish for equities and Carl's thesis.
Even if we lose 1038 in the coming weeks (as is possible), I will be looking to buy SOX and TNX for my longer-term portfolio. I would welcome the dips with open arms.
14 comments:
Capital preservation rules once again!
Carl, Nice break-even!
The McClellan Osc close to being extreme "oversold" condition so we may see a pop starting next week.
Jack
Carl,
Im once again impress..thanks for sharing your wisdom
Long SSO with a very tight stop , that 1044 looked like a bottom if only short term
Good call. Bad luck.
Carl - I must say well done on your calls. Contrarian Trading is an Art!
Wow Carl, I get you wish you could have that one back! Oh well, no one could have predicted a close like that.
wave i down is complete and a small A up, B down, C up retracement within wave ii will complete.
As I mentioned earlier, enjoy a couple nice up days because I believe the real carnage of wave iii down will take us below 1000 in the next week or two.
Jeff,
Wave [i] down was already completed on Feb. 1st, at 1071.44 SPX with an a-b-c rally back up to 1104.86 SPX to complete Wave [ii].
We have had yet another smaller wave (i) down complete into this morning, before an "a" up and a new low in "b" at 1044.50 SPX of an "a-b-c" flat in what is called Wave [iii} down.
After some retracements back up (possibly Monday's opening) to 1074 or 1084 in the "c" portion of the flat, the market according to Elliott Wave theory should then proceed DOWN HARD in Wave (iii) of [iii].
In otherwords, it is the old 1-2, i-ii, before falling off a cliff on Tuesday.
carl, im tired of seeing you attacked...here is something for you...fwiw i follow this service that gives buy and sell signals based upon the committment of traders reports...in nov commercials were hugely short and generated a sell signal which then failed...usually after a failed sell signal the market takes off to the upside but this one rolled over and in the last two weeks commercials have been covering alot...after the selloff on thur and fri they most likely will be buying very aggressively, supporting a move to new highs...
hope it works for both our sakes...
thanks and keep up the good work.
greg
Anyone who is brave enough to make his predictions has a thick skin and is impervious to the criticism of the masses of timid souls who hide behind hindsight.
Thanks from me for your continued insights. No place to hide when you are on the mound and toss one down the middle. It just comes with the territory.
Step by step, just reading the waves, boxes, whatever the best we can. I love to see the variety of "disciplines" and opinions represented here.
Carl,
Your perspectives on the markets are interesting.
We do agree on one thing...looking at different indexes for comparison and clues.
Have you looked at the NYSE composite index recently. It appears to be ahead of the SP500.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=%24nya&sid=0&o_symb=%24nya&freq=1&time=8
The low made on Friday Feb 5th has nearly all the right ingredients for a MAJOR bottom. These include matching historical precedents, reaching statistical lower boundaries, satisfying 3-phase target range low, as well as being accompanies by very high capitulation volume. Its all there and I tried to spell this out on my blog. However, the path taken from Jan 11th to Feb 5th does not clearly suggest a rally through the Jan 11th top. Similar to the interim low during the Jun -July 2009 period, this market may need to go lower before it can move higher. Should be interesting and I also see short term turns happening in other asset classes (USD top, Nat Gas bottom, Oil bottom, Implied vol top, etc.). Jury is still out for me on if emini's go to new bull mraket highs but I do think we see emini 1100 before we see 1040 (currently 1060).
Question for the Equity bears:
The recent meteoric rise in the dollar has NOT been met with a concomitant rise in bonds. Look at TLT, for instance. If the dollars are not going into bonds, and if the dollar continues to rise more dollars are being pulled out of other currencies, then where will funds go?
You could say that funds are not going into US bonds because of (a) the massive (and increasing) US debt, and little understanding of how it will be paid, and (b) very low interest rates.
But, if there was a crisis such as in March 2009, funds would still go into bonds. People don't just put money under the mattress. (Look at TLT charts.)
Either funds are not going into bonds because equities are still considered a better bet (hence crisis is not considered very extreme) OR funds have not yet gone into bonds, but will do so. Looking at the TLT chart, I don't find the latter to be a compelling argument. Also, given the TNX chart (bond rates), I find this argument very hard to believe. In fact, it appears to me that TNX may have completed a 50% retrace of the past five-wave (December 2009) bull move in a three wave bear move. This would be bullish for equities and Carl's thesis.
Even if we lose 1038 in the coming weeks (as is possible), I will be looking to buy SOX and TNX for my longer-term portfolio. I would welcome the dips with open arms.
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