Friday, April 09, 2010

Guesstimates on April 9, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1180 - 1193. The ES is on its way to 1200 and above.

QQQ: A rally to 50.00 and higher is underway.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is near 131.00. Resistance above the market is at 141.00. Looking further ahead I think that a drop to 125 is likely over the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

May Crude: The market has moved visibly above resistance but I still think the next big move will take it to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The longer term trend has turned downward. I expect gold to drop to 875 over the next few months.

SLV - May Silver: I think silver has started a down move that will carry it to 10.00 over the next few months. Resistance above the market is now 18.30.

Google: A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.


Atul said...


PM - can you confirm if SnP will cross 1194 today? You had this target of crossing 1194 by yetserday which didn't happen.

Interested to know your view on this.

PM said...

Hi Carl,

My model went short on yesterday's close since we did not meet the prerequisite of closing above 1194.60 to nullify the sell signal. However, we now have a new buy signal with a trade above 1185.70, which has already occurred this morning. A close above 1185.70 will now confirm the new buy signal.


Kindest regards,


PM said...

Dear Atul,

Thanks for the question, I appreciate your interest.

Allow me to clarify for you. 1194.60 was not a target, I never have targets, I never predict, I follow the market, I never attempt to lead it, only a fool would attempt to predict these markets. I merely state prerequisites which the market must meet in order to have a buy or sell signal. Kindly read my original post for clarification on this point.

Many thanks.


dcatlowpj said...

PM, are you calling the 94 area a strong resistance level and why, Please?

PM said...

Dear dcatlowpj,

No, I'm not. It was only a resistance point for one day only. For Monday, for example, the resistance point, as you put it, is 1196.50. These are not resistance levels at all, these are price points where the market is over stretched and cannot sustain further buying, provided the market reaches that point on its specified day. Once prices close above those points, then they do not become support points. There is nothing conventional about my model. I hope this was helpful

Have a great weekend.


dcatlowpj said...

PM, you are making SOME kind of point wit your reply. A key level (whatever you want to call it and you have done so for days), is where one determines that it as a point of momentum/acceleration/resistance or support, or as key level of determining a move that will indicate a reversal into a pull-back or a counter trend reversal for a short any even, these key levels are often called "resistance levels" until they prove otherwise, which is in effect what you have been saying for days.

Today, it is now being deemed a "resistance point for one day" which in no other terms is saying the very same thing in my question. But, if you want to tell me that I was somehow ignorant of that point, however stringent in application that you want it to be, it was in effect a resistance point and I was really asking how you determined it.

Your posts are interesting but they would be far MORE interesting if you could fill in the blanks or otherwise these remarks are of the "gadfly" kind and are otherwise unremarkable in substance.

I agree with the guys who said that volume does not matter, but only price does, UNTIL volume pops occur and they can signal exhaustion, or a key level to which to pay attention. This person needs to read about VOLUME SPREAD ANALYSIS...volume AND price are key, not just one of them. Ignore volume to your detriment.