Thursday, May 13, 2010

Guesstimates on May 13, 2010

June S&P E-mini Futures: I think that last week's low at 1056 ended the correction from 1216. Today's range estimate is 1157-77.

QQQ: A move up to 54.00 will be the next big swing.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market is headed for 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is starting to stabilize. The 131 level is resistance.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 90.00.

June Crude: I still think the next big move will take crude oil to 50.00.

GLD – June Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400.

SLV - July Silver: I now think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 495-505 zone is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


Theodore said...

Hi Carl,

2 questions please:

1. Why haven't you open a "long" position if you think the correction is over?

2. Do you have an estimate on Greece economy and the possibility of default?

thank you in advance

Atrader said...


Carl is given you his opinion on the market. He probably has 2 accounts 1 day/swing trading and 1 long term position trading.

I have 2 ES accounts 1 day/swing and 1 position trading.

The point is YOU should do what you think NOT question the messenger of trading news.

Your questions remind of 'Stupid' news people talk about just like the Greece, Spain, Euro crisis etc.

I've live thru many since 1981 with Harry Browne and Howard Ruff and Aden sisters with their call of Gold at $2,000 for 1986 in 1980 and Browne and Ruff calling for Hyper inflation in the US in 1980's back in 1979.

Well the Dow just went from 782 to 14267 during that time....and the S&P from 100 or lower to 1586.75

Again you had the Mexico debt 1982 crisis, then the 1987 crash, then the 1989 S&L, then the 1990 real estate crash, then 1997 Asia crisis, then 2000 dot com bust, then the 2008 mortgage meltdown, now the Greece debt crisis....

Depression will ONLY happen by 2032 NOT get rich and stop trying NOT TO by listening to "Stupid News."

Where are those "jokers' with their predictions from 1978 to Now. Prechter does NOT even trade and people listen to him.

"Stupid news" is why peopl never make money in the stock or commodity markets. The can't read a chart and believe all the fundamental and "stupid news" bs.

The best mkt to buy and hold is Japan...but nobody is doing it. It has a low from 2009 and probably will test the low by 2016.

Japan will reach 39,000..BUT you don't believe it because everybody does believe it will NEVER reach 39,000. It will in my lifetime and God willing I have 45 more years to go. This will be 1 of many billion dollar trades.

When the DX reaches 41 by 2012 and the CAD reaches 1.27 and 1.59, AUD to 1.29 + then I reverse on BP, yen, Euro, AUD, SF for a combined multi,multi-million dollar trade. Yen and BP high in 2012.

The DX will be the trade of 2010-2020. At the nadir in 2012 they will say the US is gone and China rises. DO NOT believe it for a second.

Buffet waited 21 years to get really rich. 1973-1994. The indices took off from 1995. Most people can't wait through 1 drop before they get 'Willy Nilly'...bunch of wimps.

Buffet sold out in 1966. He has set up his foundation to sell out again at some point in time. He is very smart. He made his money from his stocks picks from 1973-1989. Kraft, the railway and the building supply company maybe the only ones after 1990 that may do great. He uses the 'float' on Insurance to bet/trade. He wins most of the time.

That's my PHD thesis on "Stupid News."

Its the best "multi-million" dollar advice you will get FREE from a "Bedouin/Merchant" trader.

Good luck

Theodore said...


About my second question about Greek debt crisis, i ask carl because i live in Greece, and i would like to hear an independent opinion about this issue of my country.

I don't read stupid news... Only to understand where the mass is going..

But i want to point out that the situation in my country is NOT AS BAD AS news is presented.

Our banking system is NOT LEVERAGED and has no subprime or other toxic assets at all.

The private deposits are 375 billion euros and the public and private debt is 400 billion euros...

There are a 20-30% of GDP "not legal money" that if the ministry of finance is able to uncover then the budget deficit will be at once be below 6% of GDP....

And so many other things that only a greek citizen know...

But after all, i would like to hear carl's opinion.