Tuesday, January 04, 2011

short term top then 50 point break

Here is a 30 minute bar chart showing day session e-mini trading for the past two weeks.

I think the rally to yesterday's 1272.50 high was climactic and marked the start of a trading range that will culminate in a 50 point break. This initial drop from that top will probably end near the lower channel line of the bullish trend channel I have drawn. This target area (green oval) is just below support defined by the last short term top at 1258.50 (red dash line). It is also a shade lower that the length of a reaction which would match the size of the last reaction (blue dotted rectangle).

As you know I expect the S&P to rally above the 1300 level by early April. That is when the top of the domed house formation is due. At the moment my best guess for that top level is 1350.

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