Monday, November 21, 2011

Guesstimates on November 21, 2011

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1190-1212. I still think there has been a genuine upside breakout from the August-October trading range and this means that the market is headed for 1450 and higher over the coming months. However, for this view to remain viable the market would have to close this Friday above 1208. Failing this 1130 would become the downside target.

QQQ: Now headed for 68.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield has started a move to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Support is at 1.3500. I still think the trend in the Euro has turned up and that the market is headed for 1.5000.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 80.00.

January Crude: An extended upswing is underway. It will probably take crude to 114 or so.

GLD – December Gold: I think gold is headed for 2100. Short term support is at 1710.

SLV - December Silver: I think silver is headed for 50.00.

Google: Google is now headed for its 2007 top near 750.

Apple: Upside target is now 475.


Adsense said...

i tend to agree with you that fridays close is important yet the trend appears to be down for now .
the shrt term cycle is following the bearish crash pattern which is rare and doesnt always work . technically oct 31 would have been the high and that also coresponded with a lot to low to high count from the feb 2009 lows the mid 2010 lows on a monthly close only chart
the set up when it works is a 20 to 25 day down trend before the solar eclipse with a 10 day bounce begining the days surrounding the solar eclipse ( nov 25 ) the bounce runs into the lunar eclipse
dec 10 followed by a waterfall decline or just a decline .
earlier this year it was the decline from may 3 into june 24
lastly nov 25 is another lindsay time span for an extended rally from the early march lows in 2009
as i stated prior it is way to soon to make a bullish case at this juncture and you know well enough the better low should come mid to late next year .
good luck

Adsense said...

this is outside the box yet take a look at the 60 minute spx cash chart from aug 9 low . i realise this is not a clean count yet there is a 3 peaks domed house pattern in it . better put there is 23 points in it to the top
just something to consider

Afshaikh said...

Your gold and silver levels clearly broke on all time frames..

Are you going update the forecast ?

Adsense said...

Hey carl
i do my best work after the close or before the open , even though my mind says down for the week and a bounce , what im looking at based on the actual market is looking bullish . everything i was looking at at the month end oct indicator wise short term is satisfied for a bounce to begin .
going to focus on 1202 on spx
and probably cover shorts tomorrow
sometimes you just have to let go of your bias.
the next high is due dec 6th 10th
and next week should be fairly strong from the historical nowm of this pattern if it is indeed a crash phase . ( crash phase doesnt always bring a crash ) to add to the that the mid 2012 to late 2013 to as late as feb 2013 are the next larger swing periods .
cant rule out a decline into early next year at this juncture noe can we rule out a mini panic into christmas as crazy as it sounds
yet short term today may have been the bottom .

beetlejuice said...

I can't believe people are still viewing this market with a bullish posture.
Europe is a disaster. Markets are a breath away from crash mode.