Wednesday, February 05, 2014

gold and silver

I haven't devoted a full post to the precious metals in nearly 9 months. Here is my last post on gold.

I still think both gold and silver are locked in bear markets. My downside target for gold is 850 (lower green line on monthly bar chart), roughly the level of the 1980 top which now should be support. A somewhat higher but still plausible target is 1030, the level of the high in 2008 and also just about the midpoint of gold's historical range of 100-1923 in futures trading which began in 1975.

Looking at gold's daily bar chart you can see that the market has rallied from a second low right at the level of the July 2013 low.  The biggest rally on the way down from the September 2013 high has been about $110. So the rhythm of the drop from that high will be preserved as long as gold stays below 1290. Prices visibly above 1290 will probably mean that the market is headed for 1480, the midpoint of the drop from the October 2012 top to the July 2013 low.

On the monthly chart of silver I have drawn a few trend lines which suggest that a downside target in the $13-14 range is plausible. A drop from the bull market high of  $49 which equals the size of the drop from the 1980 top to the 1993 low would carry the market down about $36 to $13 (blue line). The rising trend line from the 2002 low and the falling lower parallel trend line which has contained this bear market so far intersect around $14.50.

On silver's daily chart you can see that the biggest rally on the way down from the September 2013 top has been about $2.60. So as long as silver remains below $21.30 the rhythm of the drop from that top will remain intact. Prices visibly above $21.30 will probably mean that silver is on its way to $26.40, the midpoint of the drop from its October 2012 high to its 2013 low. 


LowTax said...

Carl, since you see much higher rates in the near future, and assuming inflation remains low, it only makes sense for gold/silver to continue lower since real rates are negatively correlated to precious metals.

On the other hand, if PMs DO show strength and continue to the mid-points of their decline, we should expect rates to head lower, possibly tying in with a market topping call/recession.

Pins and needles!

tooearly said...

WEll Gold above your line in the sand and silver soon to be: will that then change your long term forecast as well Carl?

Carl Futia said...


Read the post above once more and you will find the answer to your question.

tooearly said...

Thanks Carl: what I meant was , if you can see 1480 gold, does the LT forecast of much lower prices get negated?