Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Guesstimates on February 25, 2015

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2107-2121. The market is headed above the 2200 level over the next couple of months.
QQQ: The current rally should carry to 112.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the flight to quality dropped the note yield to 1.65%. I think that low will hold and that the market is now headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.17.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
April Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
April Gold:  Gold has dropped well below the 1220 midpoint of its rally. This puts me back in the bear column for the intermediate term trend. The odds now favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1230.
March Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300. Resistance above the market is at 540. If GOOGL holds above 550 for a few days I will switch back to the bull column.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Twitter has reestablished itself above its declining 200 day moving average. I think this a bullish development and now expect TWTR to move up to 70.
Alibaba: BABA has reached 84 and after a rally back to 90 should then drop to 68.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

1 comment:

hooloo1957 said...

hi Carl, you said a while ago that when stocks break out of a trading range and then die they're likely to roll over. Don't you think that is the case now? Thanks