Wednesday, April 22, 2015

stock market update

Here are daily charts of my three main trend indicators for the US stock market. You can see that all three are well above their rising 200 day moving averages, a definite bullish configuration. Since the low point of last October all show a clear pattern of higher lows, even as the market has steadily narrowed its range of fluctuation. I think the higher lows are telling us that the averages are about to move higher out of the trading range within which they have moved so far in 2015.

Unless and until two of these three indicators start spending time below their 200 day moving averages I think any dip below the 50 day moving averages (green lines) will prove to be a buying opportunity. 

As I have said before, the aggressive programs of quantitative easing currently being implemented by the European Central Bank and by the Bank of Japan will have the effect of raising equity prices world-wide, even though the Fed has halted its own QE program. Moreover, I think investors are holding a Yellen put - they are confident that should some unforeseen development adversely effect the US economy (for example, a 20 % drop in US stock prices) the Federal Reserve will quickly begin a new QE program. This confidence all by itself will put a floor underneath stock prices. 

Turning to more technical matters, the US market is now well within the time frame during which my George Lindsay methods warn of an important top. I still don't see point 23 of the domed house although point 21 may well be in place. But in any event I don't think it is advisable to be bearish on stock prices unless the market shows some real weakness by dropping below its 200 day moving average. The power of central bank QE programs has been manifest over the past six years in steadily rising stock prices which have ignored many technical warning signs which have developed along the way.


mike said...

Carl, I am curious why you would even bring up George Lindsay since the market is all about QE and nothing else. If you think QE and central banker puts is the controlling factor for all markets then the analysis like George Lindsay and others has no value in this current environment Correct? you differ?

Carl Futia said...

Things don't matter until they do - and you can never tell when that will be.

Graph1159 said...

Hi Carl,
I agree - things don't matter until they do.

I've noticed a change in public sentiment about the stock market since 2009. During 2009-2011, people were saying it was just a bear market rally that would fizzle out in due time. But since 2013, the bears have been justifying their mistake by calling it a "fake" bull market driven by central banks. In other words, they are once again saying that stocks cannot go down as long as an easy monetary policy persists. With this sentiment, at any time, bearish technical patterns could start to matter again.