Monday, May 04, 2015

Guesstimates on May 4, 2015

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2099-2112. Friday the ES moved well above the 2095 midpoint of the last drop and I now think the market is headed for new bull market highs. Upside target for the ES is 2160. QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1.12 has been reached. I think the Euro will stall in this area and then resume its bear market.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
June Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. I think crude will rally to 62 before turning lower.
June Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1215.
July Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA is headed for 68. Resistance above the market is at 86.
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.


mike said...

Carl, while calling for new bull market highs , the stocks you have highlighted in the past are starting to look ugly . ie. FB TWTR APPL V . In your opinion is this a beginning divergence ? thanks

Carl Futia said...

As they say, market leadership tend to rotate among various sectors. The fact that the market leading tech sector is now resting is of no long lasting significance. But if most of these stocks should subsequently start trading below their 200 day moving averages I would be concerned. This is especially true now that there are so many longer term technical divergences exerting a bearish pull on the general market.