Monday, June 29, 2015

Guesstimates on June 29, 2015

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2062-2084. Last night’s drop on news of the Greek banking crisis has brought the market very close to the end of what I think is a correction in a bull market. The 200 day moving average stands at 2045 in the ES. I will stay generally bullish unless and until the ES starts spending time below that level.
QQQ:  Upside target is 113.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar:  The Greek banking crisis makes it likely that the ECB will pursue an even more aggressive QE policy. If the Euro can hold above 1.10 then I think will continue upward into the 1.18-1.20 zone. Otherwise the bear market has already resumed and will put the Euro below 1.00.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127 is near term resistance.
August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance.
August Gold:  I am beginning to suspect that this long trading range is the precursor to an extended advance and that the bear market is gold may be over.
July Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.
Alibaba: BABA has moved down to support at 85. Weakness below there would mean that the market is headed for 70.  
Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,
Any updated thoughts on Greece ($GREK) or $ATG here? Thanks.