Guesstimates on July 10, 2015

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2055-2075. The 200 day moving average stands at 2049 in the ES. I will stay generally bullish unless and until the ES starts spending time below that level. The ES is showing a lot of resiliency in the fact of bad news and this leads me to believe this is a correction within an ongoing bull market.

QQQ:  Upside target is 113.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market yield is headed up to 3.00%.

Euro-US Dollar:  The market has moved once more back above the 1.10 support level. This has short run bullish implications and I think a resolution of the Greek crisis will send the Euro up to 1.17 or so. But the Greek banking system is in bad shape and it is likely that the ECB will pursue an even more aggressive QE policy going forward. This has long run bearish implications which lead me to expect a Euro at 1.00 or below during the coming months.

Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone while 127-28 is near term resistance.

August Crude:  I am beginning to suspect that the bear market is oil is over and that this long trading range is a precursor to a sustained advance.

August Gold:  I am beginning to suspect that this long trading range is the precursor to an extended advance and that the bear market is gold may be over.

September Silver: I think the bear market in silver may be over.

Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.

Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Support is at 121.

Facebook: Upside target at 90 was nearly reached. Support is 80.

Twitter: I still expect TWTR to move up to 70. Support is at 35.

Alibaba: BABA has broken support at 85 and I think it is now on its way to 70.

Visa: Upside target is 72. Support is 63.