Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Guesstimates on October 4, 2016

December S&P E-mini Futures: Support today is 2152-53. Should it fail the ES will then be heading for 2136 midpoint between the 2100.25 low and the 2172.75 high, support from which it has bounced four times during the past week. I think a drop visibly below 2136 would be quite bearish. If this latter level does fail a drop well below 2100 will be underway and would probably carry to the Brexit low at 1980. On the bullish side of the ledger I think that the 2200 level will be a ceiling until a drop big enough to generate substantially more pessimism develops.
QQQ:  The 120 level is resistance.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think a substantial advance in yields is underway which should push the 10 year yield up to 2.50% or so.
Euro-US Dollar: I still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway. Resistance is 104-106. Next downside target is 95.
November Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Support at 40-41. Next upside target is 56-58.
December Gold:  A bull market is underway in gold. Support is now at 1280. Next upside target is 1420.
December Silver: Silver exceeded the 20.00 target by more than a dollar. Next upside target is 25.00. Support now is at 18.00.
Google: Support is 675. Upside target is 880.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. However should AAPL start spending time below 90 I think continuation down to 70 will become likely.  
Facebook: Support is at 120. Next upside target is 145.
Twitter: Twitter is attempting a breakout from its recent 6 month trading range. Breakout support is at 20 and if this level holds TWTR will be headed for 25 and then for 36.
Alibaba: Support is now at 98. Next upside target is 125.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

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