Friday, November 18, 2016

Guesstimates on November 18, 2016

December S&P E-mini Futures: I think the Trump Slump ended at the 2028.50 low on election night. A swing up to 2200 or above is underway. Support is at 2150. Next resistance is at 2191. The market is likely to trade within the 2143- 2185 range for at least one more week if not longer.
QQQ:  The 120 level is still resistance.
TNX (ten year note yield): A substantial advance in yields is underway which should push the 10 year yield up to 2.50% and eventually higher than that. The 10 year yield is now well above its 200 day moving average which suggests that a sustained rise in yields is underway. I think this paradoxically is a very bullish omen for world stock markets.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.
Dollar-Yen: Resistance at 108 has apparently failed. This means that a new bull market is underway. Support now is at 106 and as long as the dollar-yen hold 103 I will stay longer term bullish.
January Crude: Crude is in a bull market. Support is still at 40-41. Next upside target is 56-58.
December Gold:  The foundations of this bull market in gold have started to shake. Support at 1240 apparently has failed. A drop below 1200 will convince me that gold is headed for 1035. Until then I am going to stick with the bull market scenario.
December Silver: So far 17.00 support is holding. Should it fail and the market spend several days below that level I will conclude that it is headed down to 13.00 and lower.
Google: Support is 675. Upside target is 880.
Apple:  I still think the bull market in APPL is intact. If it is AAPL is on its way to 135.
Facebook: Support at 120 has failed but this reaction is likely to halt at 112. Next upside target is 145.
Twitter: Breakout support at 20 is likely to stop the current rally. TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: The 85-90 zone is strong support and I expect BABA to swing up to 125 from there.
Visa: Support is at 70. Upside target is 90-95.

No comments: