Thursday, October 26, 2017

Guesstimates on October 26, 2017

December S&P E-mini Futures:  At yesterday’s low the ES had dropped nearly 36 points from its 2577.25 top. The subsequent fast reversal upward means that the ES is headed back up to that top and eventually higher. I expect the bull market to continue for a few more months and move this average well above 2600 before it ends.
QQQ:  Short term support is at 144. This average is nearing the 150 target. My guess is that it will move somewhat higher to 153 before a significant drop develops.
TNX (ten year note yield): If the 10 year yield can stay above the 2.15% level then I think deflationary fears have been put aside and the trend upward to a 3.00% yield will continue.  
Euro-US Dollar: Upside target is 122 while support is at 117. I think the rise in the Euro represents an effective tightening in Euro zone monetary conditions. This is good reason to expect the ECB to continue its QE policy. If the ECB does not it will drive a nail into the coffin of the 9 year bull market in world stock markets.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Crude is headed back to 55 and support is at 45.
Gold:  The 1290 level is resistance. If it fails the ES is likely to continue up to 1390. Downside target is 1220.
Silver: Resistance is at 18.50. Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Next upside target is 1070. Support is at 900.
Apple:   Support still is at 144. Next upside target is 182.
Facebook: FB got within 2 points of the upside target at 180. I think FB will have a hard time moving much past that level for a while. Meantime support is at 160.
Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: BABA has reached resistance at 178-80. Support remains at 160. Next upside target is 199.
Visa: There is pretty strong resistance in the 106-08 zone. Support remains in the 89-90 zone.

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