Friday, April 06, 2018

Guesstimates on April 6, 2018

June S&P E-mini Futures:  The ES dropped to 2619.75 on Trump’s threat of higher tariffs after yesterday’s close. But the subsequent recovery has been very persistent and a swing up to and above yesterday’s 2672.25 high is probably underway. In any case I think Monday’s low print at 2552 will not be revisited for quite some time to come. The ES is headed for new bull market highs and I expect to see the market trade near 3100 later this year.
QQQ: Support is now at 158 and the upside target is 180.
TNX (ten year note yield): Next upside target is 3.20%. I think this is good news for the stock market because it means that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has nearly reached the 126 target.  Support remains at 122.50. Next upside target will be 130.
Dollar-Yen: Support at 108 has failed. Downside target now are 99 and then 90.
West Texas Crude Oil: Support is at 59. The next upside target is 74.
Gold:  The 1295 level is support. Upside target is 1390.
Silver: Resistance is at 18.50. Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: GOOG is headed for 1250.
Apple:  AAPL is headed higher to 180 and above.
Facebook:  Facebook’s low so far has been 149. The high volume drop below its 200 day moving average is potentially a long term bearish sign. But I am more inclined to regard it as climactic action triggered by bad news which has little long term significance. Support for this interpretation is The Economist’s bearish cover story on FB in its current issue, a bullish clue from a contrarian perspective. If I am correct FB is on its way to and above is 195 top but 149 must hold in the meantime.
Twitter: TWTR reached the 34-36 target zone on earnings news. Support is at 26. I expect TWTR to move up to 48.
Alibaba: BABA should rally to 215 over the coming weeks.
Visa: Headed for 135.

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