Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Guesstimates on September 12, 2018
September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is attempting an upside breakout from its 2865-85 trading range. If support at 2880 fails then the breakout will be a failure as well. This would mean the market is headed down into 2856-60 support zone. Meantime I think it makes sense to bet that the breakout will succeed and that the ES is headed for new bull market highs. The 3100 level remains a plausible target by year end.
QQQ: Support is 175 and the upside target is now 190.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support remains at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.50%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: It is likely the Euro bear market has resumed. Ultimately it is likely to carry the Euro back down to its 103 low.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Support is 65. The 72-74 zone was strong resistance but has been breached once already. I expect more selling at 78 but if this resistance fails crude will be headed for 87.
Gold: Gold has reached resistance in the 1215-20 zone. Another down leg is likely to begin soon and probably carry the market down to 1120-30.
Silver: Silver is headed for 12.50 and possibly lower.
Google: Support is at 1175. Next upside target is 1400.
Apple: AAPL is headed for 250.
Facebook: FB has support at 150. I think FB will move to new highs before this bull market is over.
Twitter: TWTR is likely to hold support at 30. I think TWTR has a good shot at returning to its historical high just below 75 by the end of the year.
Alibaba: Support at 160 has failed. Next stop is 145. I still think BABA will reach new bull market highs during the next few months.
Visa: Now headed for 155. Support still is 135.