Monday, February 04, 2019

Guesstimates on February 4, 2019.

March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is stalling at 2706 resistance in the face of a better than expected employment and bullish purchasing managers numbers released Friday. This inclines me to believe that the nearly 400 point rally from the December low is over. Support below the market is at 2632. The recent dovish turn in Fed policy may be enough to ward off the bear market which my Lindsay methods predict. Even so, I think it is premature to turn long term bullish until we see how the market holds up on its next big down swing. A clear upside penetration of the 200 day moving average would also be a long term bullish development. But until more evidence presents itself I will stick with my bearish scenario.
QQQ:  Resistance is now at 167 Next downside target is 157 and long term downside target is 133.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: The 109 level is still resistance. The market which should eventually reach 100 and probably drop even lower than that.
West Texas Crude Oil: The resistance level at 51 has failed so a swing up to 59 is now likely. A rally past 59 would probably mean a return to 76 and higher.
Gold: The market is headed for 1365.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: This bear market is likely to carry GOOG to 650-750. Resistance above the market is 1150.
Apple:  AAPL is likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook:  FB is likely to stay below 175 resistance and eventually should drop to 100 or so.
Twitter: TWTR is has established a 27-36 trading range. A downside breakout from this range is likely within a couple of months and will probably carry TWTR to 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is now headed for 100.
Visa: Support remains at 125 but a drop to 95 is likely over the next few months.

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