Tuesday, March 05, 2019

Guesstimates on March 5, 2019

March S&P E-mini Futures: Yesterday’s 50 point drop in the ES broke below the last low at 2875 but not below the low before that one at 2864. A swing above 2800 at this juncture would mean that the ES is headed for 2822-31 resistance. Otherwise another leg down, this time to 2735 will become likely. Longer term, a Lindsay basic advance probably started from the December low and should last two years or so while carrying the ES to historical highs.
QQQ:  Next upside target at 174-76 has been reached. Support is 169 and next upside target will be 181. A swing to new historical highs is probably underway.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield should end its decline in the 2.30 – 2.50% zone.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: Upside target is 112.50. The Dollar-yen is headed above 115.
West Texas Crude Oil: A swing up to 59 is likely. A rally past 59 would probably mean a return to 76 and higher.
Gold: Support at 1315 failed Friday. Gold is headed down to 1250-60 and a bigger drop to 1170 is at least an even bet.
Silver: Silver resistance is at 16.50.
Google: Resistance above the market is still at 1150. But a swing above 1175 would be very bullish.
Apple:  AAPL is acting visibly worse than the averages and is still likely to drop as low as 120 during the coming months.
Facebook:  FB is likely to stay below strong resistance at 175. But if this resistance fails a swing up to new bull market highs will then become likely.
Twitter: TWTR is has established a 27-36 trading range. A downside breakout from this range is likely within a couple of months and will probably carry TWTR to 12.
Alibaba: There is a good chance that BABA is headed for 100. But if strong resistance at 175 fails a swing up to new highs will then be likely.
Visa: Acting visibly stronger than the averages. I now think V is headed for 160-65.

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