Friday, November 01, 2019
Guesstimates on November 1, 2019
December S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has rallied as high as 3055. Powell yesterday said there will be no rate increases unless inflation first goes significantly higher. This is a definite change in Fed policy and is very bullish. Much higher prices are likely during the coming months. The Lindsay basic advance which started from the December low remains intact and is likely to last two years and carry the ES to 3500 or so.
QQQ: I think that this index is headed for 230-240 during the next 18 months.
TNX (ten year note yield): 1.60% is now support.. I think the fast move up from 1.45% was the start of a big up swing in yield. This is likely to carry the 10 year yield first to 3.24% and then to 5.00 %. Contrary to popular belief higher yields will be bullish for stock prices since they will indicate confidence that more and stronger economic growth lies ahead.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is trying to recover support at 108.00. If it succeeds then continuation up to 121 is likely. If it fails a drop to 100 will continue.
West Texas Crude Oil: A swing down to 49 is underway. Resistance is at 57.
Gold: Strong resistance level is 1515. A drop to 1400 is a reasonable expectation with even lower prices a good possibility.
Silver: Support is at 16.50. If it fails a drop to 12.50 will be underway.
Google: Support now is 1210. Next upside target is 1350.
Apple: AAPL reached 250 and is now headed for 285.
Facebook: FB bounced off of resistance at 198. Support is 188 and next upside target is 215.
Twitter: The 28 level is support and if it fails continuation down to 13 becomes likely.
Alibaba: BABA is starting to act as if a breakout above the 180 resistance level is imminent. If it occurs then BABA will be headed for new bull market highs.
Visa: Support is at 160-62. V is now headed for 200.