Monday, February 03, 2020
Guesstimates on February 3, 2020
March S&P E-mini Futures: The ES is still below 3300 so I am sticking with my bearish short run forecast of a drop to 3170 and then to 3100. But much higher prices are likely later this year. The Lindsay basic advance which started from the December 2018 low remains intact and is likely to carry the ES to 3500 or so.
QQQ: I think that this index is headed for 230-240 during the next 18 months.
TNX (ten year note yield): 1.60% is support. This yield up swing is likely to carry the 10 year yield first to 3.24% and then to 5.00 %. Contrary to popular belief higher yields will be bullish for stock prices since they will indicate confidence that more and stronger economic growth lies ahead.
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is 115.50. The longer term picture is bearish.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is trying to recover support at 108.00. If it succeeds then continuation up to 121 is likely. If it fails a drop to 100 will continue.
West Texas Crude Oil: Support is now the 50-53 zone.
Gold: A swing up to 1650 or so is underway. Support is 1530.
Silver: Support is at 16.50. Upside target is 23.25.
Google: Next upside target is 1550. Support is now 1375.
Apple: AAPL now headed for 335.
Amazon: Upside target is 2300.
Facebook: Next upside target is 250.
Twitter: The 28 level is support and if it fails continuation down to 13 becomes likely.
Alibaba: BABA is headed for 245.
Visa: V has reached the 200 target. Support is at 184. Next upside target is 215.