Friday, December 04, 2020

Guesstimates on December 10, 2020


December S&P E-mini Futures:  The ES has rallied back to and a bit above the trading range top at 3668 established a three weeks ago on November 9. An upside breakout would be very bullish and the odds favoring one have risen to 65-35. In any case this is still a bull market. The Fed’s QE program is very bullish long term and the Corona Crisis has passed its peak. There will be no more shutdowns. The 2174 low will hold for several years and the ES is likely to trade well above 4000 by the end of 2021.

QQQ:  A rally to 315 and higher is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield): There is a good chance that the 0.40% level was the low yield of this nearly 40 year decline in bond yields and that yields will soon start a long march into higher ground.

Euro-US Dollar: A swing up to 125.00 is likely.

Dollar-Yen: Still confined within a 101-115 trading range.

West Texas Crude Oil: A bull market is in progress. Upside target is 44 was reached. Support is now 35. Next upside target is 50-55.

Gold: If gold stays below 1800 for more than a week then a bear market has begun. But on this basis the 1800 level has held so far.

Silver:  Support is 21.00.

Google: Resistance is 1800 and support now is at 1450-1500.

Apple: The 103 low is likely to hold. AAPL is headed for 145 and above.  

Amazon: Next upside target is 3700. Support is now 2850.

Facebook:  Next upside target is 306 then 325.

Twitter: Upside target 75.

Alibaba: BABA should find support near 250.

Visa: Upside target is 240. Support is at 175-180.

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