Friday, February 20, 2009

2:30 pm Update

Here is a five minute e-mini bar chart for the past two day sessions. Earlier today I estimated that the low for the day would be near 753 (blue rectangle) and anticipating that low I put on a single unit long position at 755. I had also noted that the biggest rally on the way down from last Friday's high at 840.50 had been about 19 points (red rectangle). So when the market moved above 770 a little while ago I sold my longs a little above the top of the red rectangle.

The high volume on this rally suggests that a demand shock may be in progress, but it is too early to tell. If it really is a demand shock then I would expect the market to hold above 762 and finish the day strong. In any case a move above today's high - whatever it turns out to be - on Monday would be very bullish.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Carl...think you want your 800s to be 700s...

Fruedian slip...haha...me too

Anonymous said...

Carl, you meant 753 and 755 in your post, not 853 and 855.

Denali92 said...

GREAT call on 753!

I must admit I feel really stupid right now as my limit orders were in assuming they would force a 749.75 print - I assumed a low for the orders at 750.50.

I am not good at chasing the market, so I am left flat and disappointed. Well done!

Anonymous said...

Graph is not showing up. All others are.

Anonymous said...

Dear Carl,

One strong possibility is there that the Index Level on Lower Side that we saw today seems to be and hopefully an "One Time Occassion for Year 2009".

Best regards,