Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Guesstimates on February 17, 2009

March S&P  E-mini Futures:  Since Friday’s close the e-minis have dropped more than 20 points. This cancels the implication of what appeared to be a demand shock late Thursday. The short term trend is downward and is likely to carry the market down into the 760-70 range. I expect today’s low to be 780-85. Resistance above the market is at 810.  

QQQ: The Q’s are headed down to 28.50 or so.  

March Bonds: The bonds have dropped into the 126-27 target zone. The next big move in this market should be upward. Any significant weakness below 125 will mean that a bear market is underway.    

March 10 Year Notes: The notes have yet to reach our 120 target. We think a substantial rally is imminent, but weakness below 120 would mean that a bear market is underway.    

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has broken below support at 127.50 and now is headed down to 122.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway.  

March Crude: March crude has entered the 30-35 target zone. I think the market will start stabilizing. The next big move should be a rally to 50.

GLD – April Gold: Gold has decisively breached the 935 level and this market is now headed for 1100.

 SLV - March Silver: I now think silver is headed for 1750.

Google: Resistance stands at 375. I think that its drop from 747 is over.

 

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl,
I am still looking at the 775-95 area as a possible bottom and
for me probably tomorrow
will be the time to initiate some swing buys especially URE and UYG.

cheers
Susn

Anonymous said...

U guys can keep looking for that bottom while it sinks to 678--what a nice number--i know god likes that one

Carl Futia said...

I find it amusing that comments like these from 9:42 am and 9:50 am always show up after the market has had a big break. Evidently these two guys have their eyes glued to their rear view mirrors and confidently report to us what they see there. Sadly, they delude themselves into thinking they are looking ahead instead of into the past.

Anonymous said...

Bad manners at the least, too much emotion for sure. The latter spells lack of consistent success.

Why do they bother? Psychological field day there...

John M