Thursday, November 12, 2009

Guesstimates on November 12, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The day session range estimate is again 1090-1105. I expect to see this rally reach the 1126 level within a week or two.

QQQ: Support is at 41.10. Next upside target is 45.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think a sustained drop to below 120 is about to start.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.13 low will hold and that the yen will soon begin a move to 105.00.

December Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is now at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: The market will probably keep going until it reaches 1120. Support is at 1030.

SLV - December Silver: Continuation up to 1900 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 490. Next step upward will carry to 610.


Market Owl said...

Crude headed down to $50? Based on what? Since you think the market is going higher, I can't picture crude going to $50 under that scenario.

Unknown said...

I've concluded that Carl believes there will be a total divergence between the S&P and oil, which he like anyone, is entitled to his opinion.

I think oil and the S&P will make fresh highs in the next week or so, but sticking to my Eliott Wave analysis, we are on the verge of Wave IV down to as far 1085 in the next couple days. From there, I think we start Wave V up to the 1125-1140.

Oil is in the E subwave(a final move down) down within a 4th wave small retracement. I think oil gets down to the $77 range or so before Wave 5 has it busting out to $84 in the next couple weeks.

Happy trading folks!

Urban Carmel said...


Are you follow an EWer or do you work the waves yourself? Just curious - also on how well it has worked for you. I follow it as well.


Unknown said...

I follow Elliott wave and do my own wave analysis. Depending upon the wave, it's hard to put a top or bottom, but knowing the fundamentals of 1-3-5 up, 2-4 wave down, and ABC retracements sure helps alot. It is among many things I look at when doing analysis, but by no means, can you completely depend it alone. As such, I think it's important to have a good technical/fundamental balance in your approach.

Definitely much easier said than done at times. The key is to define when you know your analysis is wrong and cut ties.

This is one of the things I like about Carl. He has wonderful analysis and knows when to sell out when he knows he's wrong (but he's a lot more right than wrong, which means, in the end, he makes money!).