Friday, November 27, 2009

Guesstimates on November 27, 2009

December S&P E-mini Futures: The Dubai World default sent world markets spiraling downward yesterday. The e-minis traded as low as 1067 last night. The drop below the 1082 level changes the short term picture. I now think that the reaction which started from the November 16 top at 1112 will carry the market down about as much as the late October - early November break which was 72 points. So the 1040 level should prove to be strong support, especially since it is just a shade above the 1038 top established on August 28. I think this drop will end next week and that the subsequent up move will carry the market up 100 points or so. Today's day session range estimate is 1066-1086. Remember that trading in New York ends early at 1:15 pm.

QQQ: Support is at 41.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I have been leaning on resistance near 150 but New York closed above 151.00 on Wednesday so I now think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I now thing the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – December Gold: Sentiment is very bullish. But I think this morning's 1130 low will hold and that continuation upward to 1230 is likely.

SLV - December Silver: The 1900 target has nearly been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.

1 comment:

Bill said...

I see the markets rebounding Monday.

Asia is so oversold right now that I see a sharp rebound Monda. Dubai is over, the markets have seen their low. The US market made its low overnight.