Thursday, December 10, 2009

Guesstimates on December 10, 2009

March S&P E-mini Futures: Switching to the March 2010 contract today which trades 4.50 points below December. Last night the market broke upwards from the trading range of the past two days. I think this means that the e-minis are headed for 1140, not 1040. Today's range estimate for the March contract is 1094-1108.

QQQ: Upside target is 47.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): I think this market has begun a move to 5.00%.

TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market has begun a swing up to 4.30%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is headed for 160. Meantime support is at 147.50.

Dollar-Yen: I think the dollar-yen is headed down to 80.

January Crude: I think that crude is headed down to 50.00. Resistance is still at 81.00.

GLD – February Gold: I still think gold has more to go on the upside. Meantime support is at 1130.

SLV - March Silver: The 1900 target has been reached. Still no sign of a top so continuation upward to 2100 is likely.

Google: Support is now at 535. This step upward will carry to 610.


extrader said...

Why do I get bashings from other in here about mood swings, when Carl changes his targets either intraday or overnight?

Yesterday I made a comment that the market was heading to 1100 and I got a comment from another blogger on here that my mood changes by the minute! Well Carl changed his mood from 1040 now to 1140!

Happy Trading

curt said...

this is a strange market...what looks like a beautiful technical bottom again is failing to ignite buyers in any meaningful way.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, extrader. I should have said "my" moods instead of "your" moods. Anyhow, it appears that a bunch of moody traders has made even the market moodier. Happy trading!

straightshooter2000 said...

extrader, if you enter into the opinions arena, then prepare to subject yourself to criticism.

Unknown said...

I agree with Carl. S&P was delaying on moving up a few days ago. The trend has changed since yesterday to an uptrend. This uptrend will continue for at least 10 days. I believe it will break 1119 and sustain above 1119 next week.

BigBoys said...

I have a question for Carl or anybody who has the answer. How should we know whether the overnight rally is for reall or is a fake rally that could end soon in the morning when market opens. That is my real peoblem. I see a lot of times that market gaps up and then close negative.

Unknown said...

Tough market indeed. I figure if Carl is going from 1140 to 1040 to 1140 to 1040 to 1140 again, this must be a confusing market.

I will note that if this market fails to get over the 1105-1107 in the next couple days, the hourly chart technicals would show a new down channel that would pave the way to 1070(unfilled gap). A break above this critical level definitely leaves the door open for higher prices.

Short and intermediate term indicators(10 and 30 day advance/decline) say the market is technically overbought so I continue to be nimble here.

pimaCanyon said...


opinions are one thing. backing opinions up with analysis is another. when you post an opinion, if you would also explain your reasons for believing the market will go that way, I believe you'd get less criticism.

Carl does change his outlook when conditions in the market change and he usually explains why he's made the change.

Unknown said...

A market tell: After peaking at 595 on 12/4, GOOG is once again right back up at 595 again and has subsequently fallen back to 592.

I do find it interesting that even with the S&P up, GOOG, GS are down, AAPL is completely flat, and the Russell 2000(RUT) is again struggling to get back above 600 or the 50DMA. To add, the Euro and Oil have topped and the opening trade advance looks like a 'dead-cat' bounce. Unless breadth and volume start to improve, I find it hard to believe that the S&P will materially climb.

extrader said...


this is not my blog to discuss my opinion, plus Carl has the luxury of showing u his charts and whatever else he wants to show you... im not here to discuss my opinion, im here to share with you what i think is going on... it wouldnt make any sense to share my opinion since most on here dont use indicators, most traders are using e-waves or magazine covers!


Anonymous said...

extrader, start your own blog! This should solve your problem.