Being a permabull causes you to be unable to see when corrections are underway. Today will likely be a failed 2nd top. If you could open yourself to market flow instead you could profit both ways. I may not be right about the call but it keeps me from trouble most of the time by realizing it can move either way.
Jeffrey, The indicators are rolling over (bearish), but until we dip below the 1198 support (S&P cash) I am not willing to hold a short on this market. It has proven the bears wrong many times just this year alone. I shorted the market this AM and got a 3 pt clip, but was not willing to hold the trade below 1205 (S&P cash), but not willing to go long at this time...
Carl, why not stay long since your bullish calls from Feb lows? You tend to day trade and not swing long? FMT
Jeff, during an uptrend you gotta be permabull. Trying to short can be difficult and damaging to your account during an upmove. Once the correction sets in you can be permabear. That's how you trade the market.
Carl...on your perma bull label from Jeffrey....reminds me of an old Italian Proverb...."A sailor must learn to sail in all winds"......you are a brilliant guy...great blog....why can't you pull the trigger on the short side?
Dow touched 11150 twice (today and April 15) and it seems that it cannot pass it this month. Generally, I think the pattern of fluctuations of Dow is more regular than that of S&P500 (though both are quite correlated).
For all those who think Carl should be playing both sides of the market, remember the old adage, "Never short a bull market". And "Trade only in the direction of the trend".
And for those who wonder why Carl does not hold his trades overnight (usually), you are making an assumption: That Carl trades only what he publishes on his blog. He himself has said that he posts only high probability trades here. He may have other accounts where he swing trades or holds IT trades. Seems obvious that this blog is about his day trading only, and we really don't know what other kind of trading he's doing. But if you've read his book, we can pretty much assume that he has a long term core position account where he bases his long term trades on the principles explained in his book and that those trades are not posted on this blog.
Pima...fair enough...I agree...trade only in the direction of the trend. I saw very little...if any.... shorting by Carl on the 5000 or 6000 point dow selloff down to 6600 in Mar 09.
Great opportunities both ways...in my humble oppinion.
Brilliant (contrarian) long strategy over the last 13 months...all credit given.
12 comments:
Being a permabull causes you to be unable to see when corrections are underway. Today will likely be a failed 2nd top. If you could open yourself to market flow instead you could profit both ways. I may not be right about the call but it keeps me from trouble most of the time by realizing it can move either way.
So you stay out of trouble by not trading - more people should follow your lead!
Jeffrey, The indicators are rolling over (bearish), but until we dip below the 1198 support (S&P cash) I am not willing to hold a short on this market. It has proven the bears wrong many times just this year alone. I shorted the market this AM and got a 3 pt clip, but was not willing to hold the trade below 1205 (S&P cash), but not willing to go long at this time...
Carl, why not stay long since your bullish calls from Feb lows? You tend to day trade and not swing long?
FMT
Jeff, during an uptrend you gotta be permabull. Trying to short can be difficult and damaging to your account during an upmove. Once the correction sets in you can be permabear. That's how you trade the market.
Jeffery-
I don't think Carl is a permabull - just following the trend -
Carl...on your perma bull label from Jeffrey....reminds me of an old Italian Proverb...."A sailor must learn to sail in all winds"......you are a brilliant guy...great blog....why can't you pull the trigger on the short side?
Dow touched 11150 twice (today and April 15) and it seems that it cannot pass it this month. Generally, I think the pattern of fluctuations of Dow is more regular than that of S&P500 (though both are quite correlated).
Carl usually would cut his losses by now.
For all those who think Carl should be playing both sides of the market, remember the old adage, "Never short a bull market". And "Trade only in the direction of the trend".
And for those who wonder why Carl does not hold his trades overnight (usually), you are making an assumption: That Carl trades only what he publishes on his blog. He himself has said that he posts only high probability trades here. He may have other accounts where he swing trades or holds IT trades. Seems obvious that this blog is about his day trading only, and we really don't know what other kind of trading he's doing. But if you've read his book, we can pretty much assume that he has a long term core position account where he bases his long term trades on the principles explained in his book and that those trades are not posted on this blog.
Pima...fair enough...I agree...trade only in the direction of the trend. I saw very little...if any.... shorting by Carl on the 5000 or 6000 point dow selloff down to 6600 in Mar 09.
Great opportunities both ways...in my humble oppinion.
Brilliant (contrarian) long strategy over the last 13 months...all credit given.
Very well said, pima.
Jeffrey ...
Carl has pretty much catch all the move from last year march low.
Being one of the few to say it's a bull market.
Now. coming here to call him names is unfair.
Anyway good calls Carl.
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