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Friday, April 30, 2010
Quick update
I think the drop from the overnight high at 1208 will end in the 1185-90 zone later today or early on Monday. From that higher low I think the market will resume its move to 1270.
Today the markwet did pretty good taking into account that Goldman won't be able to settle out of court since the government will pursue criminal charges on top of the civil lawsuit. Also the economy grew less than expected in the first quarter. Those two elements plus the european debt did not do as much damange to the market as I would have expected.
Still in the last 3 weeks we've been trading sideways. It is not clear whether the market is making a temporary top or whehter it'll resume its way up to 1270 as Carl thinks. Or it may continue its sideways range for a few more weeks.
Gold is on track to make the highest weekly (Friday) closing ever. Also, rumor has it the Fed will be reinstating an FX Swap line to the ECB. No confirmation but this can not be good. Effectively we are seeing G10 govt's bail out their respective corporates tranferring the disease from private to public sector. Next comes the US govt bailing out the other G10 govt's! Have a look at 10y treasury yields and the trendline in place from the Dec2008 low at 2%. It is being tested.
carl i still need to respect my own cycles work which call for a low in mid may . like i noted yesterday i still have bullish bias into august and i have burnt to many times attempting to trade the downside so not entering any bearish positions at this time a hard thrust down into the close is possible yet think the 10724 price area on the dow would find support . ill wait and see next weeks price action . silver and gold are attempting a break out to the upside . SLV has meaningful resistance at 20 bucks so my bullish bias is expecting that level to be broken sooner rather then later . ill find out soon enough how that plays out .' good luck joe
there maybe a little too much bearish news for this market right now...i'm guessing we see a significant down move over the next week or two. its been a great run but time for a break
A move to 1270.00 is more than likely going to happen but I think you need to get above 1215.00 again before that becomes realistic.I stated last week a move lower would happen before a move higher. Currently, I had Monday pegged as the reversal date as well using time symmetry. My only problem is you have been saying 1270.00 now for well over a week and there have been several hard downturns since then. Eventually though,you will be right. Look for a reversal off a lower bottom.
If you pull this rabbit out of your hat and we go up from here with a bottom right here then I will do the Carl Futia dance and will be convinced that there is nobody better - however I'm having my doubts that I'll be dancing on Monday.
I think I understand Carl's reasoning for estimating the bottoming range.
If one compares the supply shock on Tuesday with the one today, one can see that today's has less volume than Tueday's (see the two white circles). Coincidentally both sessions closed near the low of the day. The chart shows ES cash sessions only.
http://www.screencast.com/t/YTUxZmM0ZWUt
I hope ES is not making a lower low along the blue channel. If ES falls below 117x, I think it will quickly drop to 114x.
14 comments:
i wonder what the affects of the oil spill will have on the markets come monday morning after watching a weekend of dead animals.
The key element on the weekend is the greek debt.
Today the markwet did pretty good taking into account that Goldman won't be able to settle out of court since the government will pursue criminal charges on top of the civil lawsuit. Also the economy grew less than expected in the first quarter. Those two elements plus the european debt did not do as much damange to the market as I would have expected.
Still in the last 3 weeks we've been trading sideways. It is not clear whether the market is making a temporary top or whehter it'll resume its way up to 1270 as Carl thinks. Or it may continue its sideways range for a few more weeks.
Gold is on track to make the highest weekly (Friday) closing ever. Also, rumor has it the Fed will be reinstating an FX Swap line to the ECB. No confirmation but this can not be good. Effectively we are seeing G10 govt's bail out their respective corporates tranferring the disease from private to public sector. Next comes the US govt bailing out the other G10 govt's! Have a look at 10y treasury yields and the trendline in place from the Dec2008 low at 2%. It is being tested.
carl
i still need to respect my own cycles work which call for a low
in mid may . like i noted yesterday
i still have bullish bias into august and i have burnt to many times attempting to trade the downside so not entering any bearish positions at this time
a hard thrust down into the close is possible yet think the 10724 price area on the dow would find support . ill wait and see next weeks price action . silver and gold are attempting a break out to the upside . SLV has meaningful resistance at 20 bucks so my bullish bias is expecting that level to be broken sooner rather then later . ill find out soon enough how that plays out .'
good luck
joe
Gap filled at 86-87... time to go up from here!
Carl..you are acting like a hog this time
there is your 1185. whew. wish i could go long here.
there maybe a little too much bearish news for this market right now...i'm guessing we see a significant down move over the next week or two. its been a great run but time for a break
A move to 1270.00 is more than likely going to happen but I think you need to get above 1215.00 again before that becomes realistic.I stated last week a move lower would happen before a move higher. Currently, I had Monday pegged as the reversal date as well using time symmetry. My only problem is you have been saying 1270.00 now for well over a week and there have been several hard downturns since then. Eventually though,you will be right. Look for a reversal off a lower bottom.
Good call Carl, but close The ES 1185 area is barely holding.
Carl,
If you pull this rabbit out of your hat and we go up from here with a bottom right here then I will do the Carl Futia dance and will be convinced that there is nobody better - however I'm having my doubts that I'll be dancing on Monday.
I think I understand Carl's reasoning for estimating the bottoming range.
If one compares the supply shock on Tuesday with the one today, one can see that today's has less volume than Tueday's (see the two white circles). Coincidentally both sessions closed near the low of the day. The chart shows ES cash sessions only.
http://www.screencast.com/t/YTUxZmM0ZWUt
I hope ES is not making a lower low along the blue channel. If ES falls below 117x, I think it will quickly drop to 114x.
Who cares which way as long as it is moving !
Love the volatility while it's here.
Thanks Carl for sharing your thoughts; have a great weekend.
After Merkle's reelection in May, the PIIGS debt problem will be quickly resolved and then we will move to 1270 and beyond.
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