Monday, May 16, 2011

Guesstimates on May 16, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: I think the ES is establishing a base which will support a move to 1400 and higher. Today's range estimate is 1319-34. I think the drop from 1373.50 will end today or tomorrow.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 145.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 81.80.

June Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.


Martin Niemann said...


regarding Crude Oil - since you have posted that you expect a rally to 106, Oil has reached that level almost (104.5 on May 6), and has fallen to 95 on May 12.

Would that not satisfy both events (rally to 106 resistance) as well as test of support at 94?

Kind regards

Anonymous said...

without passing judgment but as of this morning Carl is one of the few Bulls left within the blogosphere. 80% bearish talk and predicting waterfall declines.