Monday, February 11, 2013

Guesstimates on February 11, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1511-1521. It is likely that the ES will rally to 1546 during the next few weeks.
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB is pursuing a tighter monetary policy than the Fed and that  will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Support is at 1.3400.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so.
March Crude:  The September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.
April Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.
March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.

1 comment:

Graph1159 said...

Hi Carl. I am starting to wonder if we are seeing an example of Lindsay's Domed House and Three Peaks. In this scenario the Domed House began at the July 2010 low and ended in October 2011. Since then, we have had two peaks and as you have suggested we may make a third one soon. This pattern would support the scenario of a severe correction beginning soon.

If we are seeing an instance of Domed House and Three Peaks, it's somewhat upside skewed, but perhaps that is to be expected in a world of QE.