Monday, February 25, 2013

Guesstimates on February 25, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1516-1528. It looks like the drop from 1530 ended at 1495 and that the ES is now headed for 1540 or so. There is strong long term resistance in the 1540-87 range. It is likely that a drop of 100 or more points will begin from a top in that resistance zone.
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73. The 65.50 level is support.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The September 2012 top was about 1.3150 so any weakness below 1.3100 will mean that the market is headed back to the 1.27-1.28 zone. However the market has bounced strongly off of that support level and now appears headed for resistance near 1.3800.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, at least to 96 or so and probably to 99-100.
April Crude:  The September 2012 top is just above 100 and unless the market starts accepting prices above that level I will stick with my view that it is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is now at 101.
April Gold:  Gold is likely to find support near its last two lows in the 1530-40 range.
March Silver: Silver should find support near the 26.00 level.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  During the current rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 435. Meantime resistance above the market is at 525.


Anonymous said...

Looks more like the beginning of The End!

Bye Bye QE => Bye Bye Market

However, it is doubtful that the government will stop borrowing or the goberment will come to a screeching halt. So, how can the printing cannot stop?

What is going to be? I aint got a clue. It is hard to predicit the mind of the devil!

Rob said...

My long-term indicator, which is positive money divided by negative money, based on the QQQ's, fell to 2.19 back on October 22. That's relatively low, but apparently not low enough, as it had gotten down to 1.90 at the previous important low. 24 days later it finally fell to 1.90, the exact same number, on November 15, and that was the low.

Now this past Friday that number fell to 2.06, and many of us once again thought that was the low. Today shows it wasn't. I think we have to once again get down to 1.90. I'm sure that number jumped up a lot today and that's why we went down. Will it take 24 days once again? That would take us to March 18.