Thursday, April 25, 2013

Guesstimates on April 25, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1576-88. The market appears to have moved above its April 16 rally high at 1570.75 which now should be support. This implies that it is headed up to 1605 or so. But I still think that a drop of 10% or more is imminent.
QQQ:  Headed for 73.   
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is trading above its 20 day moving average and it looks like a swing to 1.40 has begun.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has much further to go. However the market is likely to stall for a few weeks beneath resistance at 100-101. Support is at 96.
June Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  The market has rallied a bit above 1440 resistance but should halt at 1465. Strength above 1465 would mean that gold is headed back to the breakout point at 1530. Downside target is still 1200-50.
May Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 while resistance above the market is at 27.00.  
Google: The market averages are headed higher and GOOG held well above support at 747, its 2007 top during the last reaction. This is a bullish combination and makes it likely that GOOG will make it to 900 on this swing up.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. AAPL has reached near term support at 390. Resistance above the market is at 430.

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