Thursday, April 04, 2013

Guesstimates on April 4, 2013

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1538-50. I am expecting a bearish follow through to yesterday’s break. Such action would be a departure from the market’s behavior this year so far when every break of a day or so followed by an immediate rally. There is strong support near 1530 and a decisive move below that level would probably mean that a downtrend of at least 5% and probably more has started.
QQQ:  I’m holding the up-to-73 forecast in abeyance until I see how the ES acts near 1530 support.  
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The euro is scraping bottom for this reaction. The next significant move should be upward to 1.40.  
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has further to go, probably to 100-01.
May Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
June Gold:  Support is in the 1530-50 zone lows of this trading range
May Silver: Support is at 26.00.
Google: Now headed for 950.
Apple:  Longer term downside target is 350 and near term support is 390. Meantime resistance above the market is at 480.

1 comment:

mike said...

carl, why the major change in downside % from 10% or more to 5% ? what is it that you see that is now different from only a day ago? thanks, michael