Thursday, June 13, 2013

drop is pretty much over in Japan - but not in the US

Investors apparently are afraid that the Bank of Japan and the Fed will not pursue their quantitative easing programs for much longer. I think they are wrong to think so. But in any case the action of the markets themselves paints a more bullish picture.

The top chart is a daily bar chart of the Japanese Nikkei stock market index. This index nearly doubled since last November as the market anticipated an aggressive quantitative easing program by the Bank of Japan. But no market goes straight up like this one did for long before a bolt-from-the-blue drop occurs. In this case the Nikkei has dropped 20% during the past 4 weeks. However this drop has now equaled the size of the drop from the 2010 high to the 2011 low (blue rectangles). I think it is likely that the Nikkei will turn up from here and move to new highs for the bull market. Even if I am wrong about this there is very strong support beneath the market at 11,500. This is the 2010 top as well as the midpoint of the advance from the 2008 low at 7,000. Moreover the 200 day moving average at the moment stands just below that level too and is moving up. In bull markets the 200 day moving average typically will stop any reactions and in fact is rarely even touched in strong up moves.

The second chart from the top is a daily chart of the yen. As you can see the current 3 week rally in the yen has matched the size of the 2012 rally. Since I don't think the Bank of Japan will alter its commitment to its QE program I think this rally is pretty much over. I expect the yen to drop substantially from here, probably into the 80-85 zone.

The bottom chart is an hourly chart of the cash S&P 500 beginning a little before the November 2012 low. You can see how the market dropped to support (red oval - which by the way appeared on my chart page before the market first touched it), then rallied, and now has come down once more to that support zone. The chart just above the S&P chart is the five day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio. I expect this ratio to rise to or above the descending blue line on the chart before the S&P drop is over. This is consistent with an ultimate S&P low somewhere between 1530 and 1560 where the drop would match the size of one of the two big declines which occurred in 2012.

Once the S&P low is in place I expect another up leg in the current bull market which will probably carry the average to 1775 or so. According to my George Lindsay time projections this top is due late this year or early next.

1 comment:

Rob said...

Nice rally today, but my long/short numbers say the move down is still just starting. The long divided by short numbers for the last seven days: 15.42 on 6/5 (all-time high), 15.34 on 6/6, 8.70 on 6/7, 12.51 on 6/10, 14.47 on 6/11, and 13.47 yesterday. Haven't seen today's numbers yet. But this number has to get down at least near 2.0 before we get any kind of a real rally. This decline has a ways to go, probably a long, long ways to go.