Thursday, June 27, 2013

Guesstimates on June 27, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1595-1610. The ES has nearly reached the 1610 target. I think a drop to a low above this week’s 1553 low will develop and will be followed by another rally into the 1620-30 range. After that the drop to 1500 or so will resume. Right now bearish sentiment is not high enough to suggest that the drop from the May 22 top is over.
QQQ:  Downside target is 70.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a low. Next support is 66.50.  
TNX (ten year note yield): The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50% and has been reached and exceeded. Next target is 2.85 % and I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The market has resumed its move up to 1.4000. Support at 1.3080 was broken yesterday but now the drop from 1.34 has matched the size of the drop which started in May. So I expect this support at 1.2950 to hold.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has held support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.
August Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
August Gold:  Gold has reached the 1200-50 downside target zone. I think a big rally will begin soon and carry the market back to 1500.   
July Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 has been reached. Resistance above the market is at 24.00.  
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thu, Jun 27, 2013 Fri, Jun 28, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 06/30/2017 - 02/28/2018 $4.25 - $5.25 billion

Looking at the above purchase amount for today, ES may get into the 1610-1650 range.

We need to see a solid evidence of the end of the upswing before playing the 1500 target.