Thursday, October 03, 2013

Guesstimates on October 3, 2013

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s day session range estimate is 1672-1685. The S&P 500 is still above its 50 day moving average as is the advance-decline line, while the Dow is below its 50 day moving average. I suspect that the S&P is about to drop below its moving average and if it does the prognosis would be for at least a drop to 1599 where the break from the September 19 top would equal the size of the May-June drop. A move in the ES back above 1700 would mean that the recent drop has been only a normal reaction in an uptrend and that the market is headed for new highs. 
QQQ:  The Q’s have been much stronger than the other averages. Support is at 75. Upside target is still 86. 
TNX (ten year note yield): I think the market will move to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro is headed for 1.4000.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.
November Crude:  Crude has put in the biggest break since the April 2013 low. I think crude is headed back to that low at 86 and possibly lower than that.
December Gold:  The market is now headed below 1200.
December Silver: The market is now headed for 15.00.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  The midpoint of the rally to 513 stands at 450. A close below 450 would mean that AAPL is headed below 385. In the meantime I will maintain my bullish stance.

1 comment:

Rob said...

For the record, we reached the highest long/short number I've seen in 14 years of watching these numbers today, October 3, with 17.44 times the money long versus short. We had a high of 15.42 back on June 5, then fell to a low of 2.15, a normal number in this QE era. Then we went back up to 16.48 on August 7 and then 16.89 a week later. This time though we started down but stopped, never getting below 8.0. Back up to 16.26 on September 18, started down, but again only got down to 8.27 and started back up to today's all-time high confidence number. I can't say this is exactly the top, but it has to be close, and three tops like we had since August in the long/short numbers sounds ominous. And I still think we have to go down to at least around 2.0 times long versus short, starting soon. And maybe down to zero, which is where we always used to drop to before QE.