Friday, October 17, 2014

Guesstimates on October 17, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1860-1890. The S&P 500 and the Dow have dropped below their 200 day moving averages on very heavy volume. I think this is a very bearish development and supports the thesis that a bear market has started.  
QQQ: Next support at 90 has been reached. If it fails the Q’s will be headed for 85.  Resistance is at 94.
TNX (ten year note yield): Yields dropped below 2.00% support yesterday’ before snapping back to close above that level. Nonetheless, it now looks like the 10 year yield will drop further, probably to 1.60% before the flight to safety subsides.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
November Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. So far AAPL has resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.


dcatlowpj said...

You are down in the ES month to date, right, Carl?

Carl Futia said...

day trades up 7 points per contract - swing trades flat.