Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Guesstimates on October 22, 2014

December S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1922-1943. A close in the S&P 500 above 1944 would be a close above the .618 retracement level and this would cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis, especially because the 4 day rally we have just seen has the characteristics of a “kick-off” for a much bigger trend. But for the time being I am sticking with my bearish view.
QQQ: Resistance at 96 has been broken. A close above 98 would put the Q’s back above the 50 day moving average and cast serious doubt on my bear market hypothesis.
TNX (ten year note yield): So far the low yield was 1.86%. Further stock market weakness would drop the 10 year yield to 1.60%. But if no such weakness develops I think the 10 year yield will begin an extended trend upwards above the 3.00% level.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 120.
Dollar-Yen: Next stop is 112.  
December Crude:   I think the longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry the market down to 70 at least.  
December Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100.  Resistance is at 1260.
December Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00.
Google:  GOOGL is headed for 650. Support is at 520.
Apple:  I think AAPL is headed for 108. So far AAPL has resisted the drop in the general market which is a bullish sign.
Facebook: Upside target is 90.
Twitter: Upside target is 66.
Alibaba: I think that BABA will drop back to or below its IPO price of 68.
Visa: I think the bull market in Visa is over and that the stock will soon slide below its 200 day moving average and stay there.

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