Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Guesstimates on December 17, 2014

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1963-93. I see no sign that the bull market has ended and in any case expect the ES to hold above its 200 day moving average, currently at 1939.
QQQ: Support is at 99.50 and the next step up should carry to 107.00
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that a move to and above the 3.00% level is underway.  
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB quantitative easing program coupled with the Fed’s termination of its own program is likely to drop to Euro to 118-120.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has reached 122. Support is now at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
January Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33.
February Gold:  Gold is headed below 1100 with 1040 my initial downside target and 850 a longer term target. Resistance above the market is 1240. Once crude oil starts to rally I expect gold to collapse.
March Silver: My bear market target remains 13.00. Resistance is at 17.60.
Google:  GOOGL has decisively broken support at 520 and now is in a long term down trend which is likely to carry it to 400 and possibly to 300.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. Next stop is 125. Support stands at 96.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: Support at 40 has been decisively broken. Twitter is in a bear market which is likely to carry it to 20.
Alibaba: Next upside target is 135.  Support is at 102-104.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 270.


Martin Niemann said...

Dear Carl,

What is your reasoning behind this statement: "Once crude oil starts to rally I expect gold to collapse"?

Many thanks,

Carl Futia said...

gold is being held up by a flight to quality triggered by the collapse in oil prices. Once fear subsides people will sell gold.