Monday, March 16, 2015

Guesstimates on March 16, 2015

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 2050-2064. I think the drop from the February 25 top at 2109.75 ended Wednesday at 2030.50. A rally to new bull market highs is underway.
QQQ:  The current rally should carry to 112.00.
TNX (ten year note yield): I think that the market is headed up to 3.00%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB’s quantitative easing program will drop the euro below 1.00 over the coming months. Near term downside target is 1.03. Resistance above the market is at 1.12.
Dollar-Yen: Support is at 116. The bull market has much further to go over the coming months. 140-45 is my longer term target zone.
May Crude:  The longer term trend in oil prices is downward and should carry this market down close to the 2008 low at 33. Resistance above the market is at 55.
April Gold:  The odds favor continuation downward to 1040 over the coming months. Resistance above the market is at 1230.
May Silver: I think silver is headed for 13.00.
Google:  I think the longer term trend is upward and expect GOOGL to hit 670.
Apple:  There is no reason for thinking the bull market is over. New upside target is 140 but 160 should not be far behind. Support is at 121.
Facebook: Upside target is 90. Support is 72.
Twitter: I expect TWTR to move up to 70.
Alibaba: BABA is headed for 68.
Visa: Visa is headed up to 290. Support is at 250.

1 comment:

Adsense said...

Hi Carl
I mentioned a month or so ago that i thought much of the last several months looked like a middle section.
today i dug a bit further and thought id mention this again
For starters im looking at the NYA
because i think it has a cleaner pattern which shows the correction beginning on july 3 2014 .
the pattern from that point is clear . A B C to oct 15 2014 then an X wave into nov 25 2014 followed by a triangle into feb 2 2015 . that is the complete complex pattern . now looking at the middle section im noticing something a little different yet important .
Point C would be march 3rd 2014
E F G ( PT G july 3 2014 )
H aug 7 2014 and J sept 4 2014.
using pt C, From C to J usinf trading days ( its simpler for this )was 129 trading days .
counting 129 Trading days from
the point J high on Sept 4 2014
i get March 11 2015 .
This implies to me that we are only now beginning a new advance and that the entire move from from either July or Sept 2014 was a corrective movement .
My bias based on the text book pattern is that the correction began July 3 2014. and ended Feb 2
yet the middle section says time wise Sept 4 2014 to March 11 2015.
If i am right then i would expect the market to surge upwards .
Guess we will see how this works out .