Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Guesstimates on August 15, 2017

September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has traded well above 2459 resistance. This leads me to expect continuation which will carry the ES above the 2500 level. Volatility also seems to be coming down again and if this volatility trend continues I think the ES will reach the 2530-2580 zone within the next few months.
QQQ:  Short term support is at 136. This average is headed for 150.
TNX (ten year note yield): If the 10 year yield can stay above the 2.15% level then I think deflationary fears have been put aside and the trend upward to a 3.00% yield will continue.  
Euro-US Dollar: Upside target is 122 while support is at 115. I think the rise in the Euro represents an effective tightening in Euro zone monetary conditions. This is good reason to expect the ECB to continue its QE policy. If the ECB does not it will drive a nail into the coffin of the 9 year bull market in world stock markets.
Dollar-Yen: A new bull market is underway. Support now is at 108. Upside target is 126-27 then 136
West Texas Crude Oil: Resistance at 48 has failed. Crude is now headed back to 55 and support is at 45.
December Gold:  Resistance is at 1305. I still think Gold is headed back to its 1035 low.
September Silver: Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: Upside target at 1010 was nearly reached but the bull market is still going strong. Next upside target will be 1070. Support is at 900.
Apple:  AAPL reached its 162 target. Support still is at 144.
Facebook: FB got within 2 points of the upside target at 180. I think FB will have a hard time moving much past that level for a while. Meantime support is at 160.
Twitter: Resistance at 20 is likely to stop any rally. A move back above that level would have longer term bullish implications. Until then TWTR is headed for 10.00.
Alibaba: BABA twice kissed the lower edge of the upside 160-65 target zone. A drop to support at 142 is probably now underway.
Visa: V only made it to 101 so far and a drop to support in the 87-90 zone is now underway.

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