Monday, July 02, 2018
Guesstimates on July 2, 2018
September S&P E-mini Futures: The ES has been weaker than I have expected during the past two weeks. This is reason for thinking that it is headed for support in the 2668-74 range. Nonetheless I still expect the rest of 2018 to be generally bullish and think the ES has a good shot at 3100 by the end of the year.
QQQ: Support is 158 and the upside target is 180.
TNX (ten year note yield): Support is at 2.70%. Next upside target is 3.40%. Rising interest rates are good news for the stock market because they signify that confidence in future growth is being restored. This in turn means that investors will try to put the huge supply of central bank liquidity to work in risky assets. This process will drive world wide stock market prices higher.
Euro-US Dollar: It is likely the Euro bear market has resumed. Ultimately it is likely to carry the Euro back down to its 103 low.
Dollar-Yen: A swing up to 117 is likely.
West Texas Crude Oil: Support is 62. The 72-74 zone is strong resistance and is likely to remain a barrier to still higher oil prices for several more weeks.
Gold: The 1260 level is strong support. I think gold is going to establish a low near there (and may have already done so). A swing back above 1280 would have very bullish implications.
Silver: Resistance is at 18.50. Silver is headed for 13.00 and below.
Google: GOOG is headed for 1250.
Apple: AAPL is headed higher to 198 and above.
Facebook: Upside target is 220.
Twitter: TWTR is approaching its 48 upside target. Support is at 36. I think TWTR has a good shot at returning to its historical high just below 75 by the end of the year.
Alibaba: BABA should rally to 215 and then to 250 over the coming weeks.
Visa: Now headed for 145.